The diurnal temperature range (DTR) during 1980 to 2010 indicates a decreasing trend over Addis Ababa and an increasing trend over Combolcha and Jimma stations (Table 3). The temperature extremes of summer days (SU25), daily maximum temperature (TXx), and daily minimum temperature (TNx) indicate an increasing trend, and the warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) over Addis Ababa and Combolcha shows a significantly increasing trend (Table 3; Figure 7). Very recently, the 2015 El Nio-induced drought has caused food insecurity among 10.2 million people, one of the highest on the record [7]. 
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G. Meehl, T. Karl, D. Easterling et al., An Introduction to Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events, AMS Publications, Boston, MA, USA, 2000. The major gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect include Water vapor, Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane, Nitrous oxide, Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).Although, methane is less abundant in atmosphere, it is by far more active greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. J. Sillmann, V. V. Kharin, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and D. Bronaugh, Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 1. Get our travel tips Delivered to your inbox. In this event the sun travels shortest length causing longest night and shortest daylight. FMAM is the smallest rainy period for most parts of Ethiopia. 81, no. 628650, 2007. The spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia is primarily determined by altitude and latitude. A study conducted in the central highlands of Ethiopia indicated the recent mean change in temperature as a reason for territorial expansion to 16002400 m asl where approximately 43% of Ethiopia's total population currently lives [17]. These include latitude, altitude/elevation, revolution of the earth and inclination of the earths axis, nearby water/ distance from water bodies, ocean currents, topography/ mountain barriers, vegetation, and prevailing winds. The annual total rainfall is 851 mm. However, some parts of the country enjoy a temperate climate. f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z<
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[67] revealed that the projected changes in precipitation are mostly uncertain across the Greater Horn of Africa and that there is a substantial decrease over the central and northern parts of Ethiopia. 
Rainfall is much more variable in both time and space than other climatic factors. Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). 21772183, 2007. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. 
This study was financially supported by Government of India under CV Raman Fellowship for African Researchers. Do we have any traditional (indigenous) mechanism? IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change the Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007. This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. December 2020. Hotness or coldness, rainy or cloudiness, sunniness, windiness or calmness, of air you are feeling on the daily base in your current location are expressions of weather. 200 0 obj
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High 73F. Both hemispheres during this event has either the most or least sunlight of the year.
Mitigation measures are those actions that are taken to reduce and control greenhouse gas emissions changing the climate. 
", The projected PRCPTOT extreme shows that the performance of precipitation is weak and variable during the period of 2011 to 2100, and the variability is high under RCP8.5 than the RCP4.5 scenario. Time-series plot of ensemble consecutive wet days (a), consecutive dry days (b), and the number of heavy precipitation days at 10mm (c). The first mode of EOF shows that 49.6% was mostly negative with a high amount of spatial variability during FMAM and shows a general drying trend over eastern central, northern, and northeastern Ethiopia. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Temperature, 5.3.2. The projected precipitation extremes of CWD, PRCPTOT, very wet day annual total (R95p), and the number of heavy precipitation days (R10) show a decreasing trend. 34, no. Winds NE at 20 to 30 mph. B. Liebmann, M. P. Hoerling, C. Funk et al., Understanding recent Eastern Horn of Africa rainfall variability and change, Journal of Climate, vol. 10071023, 1993. Winds NE at 20 to 30 mph. In theory, Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September. 24172435, 2011. WebThe Bilate River is the main contributor to Lake Abaya, and its source is the Gurage Mountains in central Ethiopia [ 12, 35 ]. It involves adjusting to actual or expected future climate. K. A. Hibbard, D. P. van Vurren, and J. Edmonds, A primer on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the coordination between the climate and integrated assessment modeling communities, CLIVAR Exchanges, vol. Improve water storage and use is some of measures taken by cities and towns. The projected precipitation extremes show that as the rainfall performance is weak, this phenomenon is most likely to increase the intensity and frequency of drought and flood over Ethiopia. Previous studies of Engelbrecht et al. Humanitarian agencies have issued urgent appeals for support to prevent widespread famine. Webfind figurative language in my text generator. 109, no. It is the second largest zone covering more than 26% of the landmass of Ethiopia. Climate Change poses a huge challenge to Ethiopians as experienced in 1974, 1984, 2002 and 2015/2016 Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a measure of the difference between daily maximum and minimum temperatures at a given location. 11, pp. These different seasons result in the temporal variation of temperature in a year in Ethiopia and in the Horn as a whole. 14671477, 2007. Time-series plot of consecutive wet days (a), consecutive dry days (b), and the number of heavy precipitation days at 10mm (c). The summer Solstice: on June 21st, the northern hemisphere has maximum tilt towards the sun experiencing longest daylight of the year. Register to receive personalised research and resources by email. 535551, 2012. Cloudy early, then thunderstorms developing this afternoon. 93, no. Moreover, the three leading modes of JJAS indicated 38.4%, 21.2%, and 10.9%, respectively, and the first mode shows that 38.4% was a positive trend over most parts of Ethiopia (Figure 4). The observed precipitation extreme of annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), consecutive wet days (CWD), and the number of heavy precipitation days (R10) show a decreasing trend, and consecutive dry days (CDD) shows an increasing trend. We are there for your support. 190202, 2002. 
It refers to any change in climate over time, due to either natural variability or human activities. 0000009445 00000 n
73, no.
D. Korecha and A. G. Barnston, Predictability of june-september rainfall in Ethiopia, Monthly Weather Review, vol. is it warming or cooling Voir la rponse douabdira1 douabdira1 Rponse: yes Ethiopia experiences dynamics in temperature and rainfall patterns. [1], In response to experience, the Ethiopian government began developing a green economy policy to counter climate change under a single policy: the 2011 Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy. A. Bernacchia and S. Pigolotti, Self-consistent method for density estimation, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), vol. Throughout history, people and societies have adjusted to and coped with changes in climate and extremes with varying degrees of success. Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. Similarly, Dike et al. We use cookies to improve your website experience. You and C. Ringler, Hydro-Economic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in Ethiopia (No. The rapid population growth and inappropriate traditional farming and management practices put intense pressure on the countrys soil, water, and biodiversity resources [71]. Webtemperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. The nonparametric MK test was applied to determine the significance of the monotonic trend in rainfall and temperature extreme indices [45, 46]. Precipitation extremes like RX1day, RX5day, CWD, R10, R20, R99p, and PRCPTOT over Addis Ababa show a decreasing trend. For instance, unlike other parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reduced temperature. ). Ethiopia as a large country in the Horn of Africa is characterized by a wide variety of altitudinal ranges and diverse climatic conditions. Cloudy early, then thunderstorms developing this afternoon. The projected climate extremes are examined by using ensemble CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Additionally, the length of dry and wet spells is projected to increase and decrease, respectively. It also encompasses making the most of any potential beneficial opportunities associated with climate change (for example, longer growing seasons or increased yields in some regions). 152, no. 109, no. As pointed out by Sarofim et al. I. Harris, P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, and D. H. Lister, Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-the CRU TS3.10 Dataset, International Journal of Climatology, vol. Water stress is already a challenge in various economic sectors [72]. 245259, 1945. Contour-based spatial variability of extremes of TMINmean under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (a) and TMAXmean under RCP4.5 and DTR RCP8.5 scenarios (b). The impact of climate change is higher in low income countries, since they have limited capacity to cope with the changes. A. Kidanu, K. Rovin, and K. Hardee-Cleaveland, Linking Population, Fertility and Family Planning with Adaptation to Climate Change: Views from Ethiopia, Population Action International, Washington, DC, USA, 2009. The risks posed to water resources from changing climatic conditions are not unique to South Africa, and IAEA scientists are using a global isotope database to reveal the dynamics between temperature and rainfall. The monthly minimum value of daily maximum temp. 3, pp. The temporal variability of rainfall is characterized by; Based on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identified in Ethiopia and the Horn. As already explained, temperature is high during the daytime in some places, and is considerably reduced at night resulting maximum difference in the daily range. The Wurch-zone is an area having altitude higher than 3,200 meters above sea level and mean annual temperature of less than 100C. WebClimate. Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 C year 1 and downward trends in rainfall of 0.4 mm month 1 year 1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. A description on each of the zones is presented as follows. 24, no. The projected diurnal temperature range (DTR) shows a decreasing trend over Addis Ababa, Jimma, and Combolcha under RCP4.5 and an increasing trend under RCP8.5 (Table 5; Figures 11 and 12). The temperature extremes show significant warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and larger warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, while the diurnal temperature range shows a variable and declining trend over Ethiopia. It is the astronomical first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere. IEEE Spectrum, 27 Jan. 2023 As should be abundantly clear now, no technology alone can condition humans out of such crowd dynamics. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and World Meteorological Organization recommended a total of 27 core extremes [3133]. Monthly reanalyzed rainfall data sourced from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) were used to assess the seasonal rainfall performance of Ethiopia. H. B. Mann, Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, vol. 32, pp.
Altitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. 0000005621 00000 n
Restore content access for purchases made as guest, Medicine, Dentistry, Nursing & Allied Health, 48 hours access to article PDF & online version. C. Siderius, K. E. Gannon, M. Ndiyoi et al., Hydrological response and complex impact pathways of the 2015/2016 El Nio in Eastern and Southern Africa, Earths Future, vol. On a global scale, Dai et al. Basic climatic parameters such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind, evapotranspiration, and aridity are considered and their spatial distribution is analyzed. 5 Howick Place | London | SW1P 1WG. 2, pp. Climate extremes such as drought and flood affect various socioeconomic activities, and understanding the intensity and frequency of extreme climate is very important [57]. However, due to the impact of altitude, they do not. But in the case of monthly averages, variation is minimal and the annual range of temperature is small. 
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10, no. For each of the station seasonal mean precipitation, temperature and long-term mean seasonal rainfall and temperature series were analyzed for fluctuation using the standardized rainfall anomaly (SRA) which is commonly used for regional climate change studies [38, 39]. When you visit the site, Dotdash Meredith and its partners may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. Ethiopia has three rainfall seasons: Bega, Belg, and Kiremt. The goal is to reduce our vulnerability to the harmful effects of climate change such as extreme weather events or food insecurity. 
5874, 2014. 0000088798 00000 n
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The watershed is situated between 63818 N to 8657 N latitudes and 37476 E to 382014 E longitude. Mountains having typically fitting characteristics of this zone include mountain systems of RasDashen in SemineGonder, Guna in South Gonder, Megezez in North Shoa, Batu in Bale, Choke, AbuneYoseph, etc. Precipitation indices, on the other hand, showed increasing and decreasing trends in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania, but no general pattern. 0000005891 00000 n
407422, 2011. 29402953, 2018. Study concludes that there is an increase in the average temperature in Ethiopia but, it constitutes ahigh degree of stability in rainfall rate and distribution. Ethiopia generally exhibits largely arid with high variability of precipitation falls into three zones: the Alpine vegetated cool zones, also known as Dega, with areas over 2,600 meters above sea level, where temperatures range from cold 16C; the temperate session known as Woyna Dega zones, where much of the country's population concentrated in areas between 1,500 and 2,500 meters above sea level where temperatures range between 16C and 30C; and the hot session known as Qola zone, encompassing both tropical and arid regions, having temperatures ranging 27C to 50C. Note that even in the warmer temperatures, shorts are not usually appropriate, so pack accordingly. Despite the observed variability in extreme precipitation events, continuous monitoring of extreme weather and climate events in Ethiopia is necessary. In contrast, the diurnal temperature range shows a decreasing trend over northeastern and southern portions of Ethiopia and increases over western half of the country. The PCA time-series plot shows that the JJAS seasonal rainfall is variable during 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1990, 2005, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. Daily maximum temperature varies from a high of more than 370c over the lowlands in northeast and southeast to a low of about 10 -150c over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. The extreme maximum temperature change is also significant compared to the historical observed extreme events. The three ensemble models employed for our study are CanESM2 with a resolution of 2.812.79 degrees from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (Canada), CSIRO-MK3.6.0 with a resolution of 1.8751.865 degrees from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), and GFDLESM2 with a resolution of 2.022 degrees from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and downloaded from PCMDI (http://pcmdi3.llnl.gov/esgcet). The increment of maximum and minimum temperatures is very high over northern parts of Ethiopia (Figure 12).
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In general, the weather that impacts the surface of the Earth and those that live on the surface takes place in the troposphere. 
17161733, 2013. L. J. Ogallo, The spatial and temporal patterns of the east African seasonal rainfall derived from principal component analysis, International Journal of Climatology, vol. GOE, Joint Government and Humanitarian Partners Document, Government of Ethiopia and partners, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2015. So, projecting the future precipitation and temperature extremes is important for providing the general information on the trend, intensity, frequency, and changes of climate extremes and their potential impact over different socioeconomic activities [2]. Data presentation defaults to national-scale aggregation, however sub-national data aggregations can be accessed by clicking within a country, on a sub-national unit. In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and the annual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. Its average annual rainfall is less than 200 mm, and average annual temperature is over 27.5oc. The Hulun Lake (HLL) and its surrounding grasslands in Northeast Inner Mongolia of China comprise a Overall, it is seen that consecutive dry days shows an increasing trend, and this phenomenon is conducive to drought occurrence, while the consecutive wet days shows a decreasing trend over Ethiopia. Similar studies of Omondi et al. 4, pp. 0000127087 00000 n
To assess the changes in precipitation patterns and extremes, a number of indicators were calculated based on the ETCCDI definitions (Table 1). 81, no. EOF is a statistical tool that compresses geophysical data fields in space and time which represent orthogonal spatial patterns (eigenvectors) and a corresponding time series of principal component analysis (PCA) and has been used in numerous climate diagnostic studies [34]. Eastern Africa is facing the very real prospect that the rains will fail for a fourth consecutive season, placing Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia into a drought of a length not experienced in the last 40 years. Worldbank, Ethiopia: Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change, World Bank Group, Washington, DC, USA, 2010. 364367, 1997. Some of the major adaptation strategies include: Contact us. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. 0000089999 00000 n
[5], Seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia basically occurs by the migration of the intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which tends fluctuating over course of years, oscillating across the equator from its northern most position over northern Ethiopia in July and August, to its south bending its position over the southern Kenya in January and February. Low 62F. 23, pp. You can find out more about our use, change your default settings, and withdraw your consent at any time with effect for the future by visiting Cookies Settings, which can also be found in the footer of the site. 118, no. An equinox is the instant of time when the sun strikes the plane of the Earths equator. 0000188900 00000 n
The projected spatial analysis of percentile-based extremes shows that the frequency of cold nights (TN10) is decreased, while the frequency of warm nights (TN90p) is dominated by a positive trend over Ethiopia for the coming periods (Figure 13). This study examines change and trends of 21 climate extremes of temperature and precipitation over Ethiopia by using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). FAO, FAO in Ethiopia El Nio Response Plan 2016, Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), Rome, Italy, 2016. While the civil war that rocked the country officially ended in 2018, local conflicts remain widespread. A rise in average temperature of about 1.3C has been observed between 1960 and 2006. T. Gissila, E. Black, D. I. F. Grimes, and J. M. Slingo, Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains, International Journal of Climatology, vol. (7, 12, 14) HUMAN HEALTH Ethiopia has a high incidence of climate-sensitive diseases. 277, no. The results of temperature extremes like tropical nights (TR20), monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), monthly maximum value of daily minimum temperature (TNx), and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) show a significant increasing trend. Because of this, the need for urgent and effective steps to build resilience is unquestionable. 20, pp. We focused on coupled models because these are the primary tools used for both T. R. Karl, R. W. Knight, K. P. Gallo et al., A new perspective on recent global warming: asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. M. New, M. Todd, M. Hulme, and P. Jones, Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century, International Journal of Climatology, vol. Although mean annual rainfall is erratic, it can be as high as 1500 mm in the wet western lowlands of Gambella. 0000152101 00000 n
This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. 145167, 1989. Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. 1, pp. 9, Article ID e1500682, 2015. This has strong implications for crop production, which becomes clear when assessing the change in areas that receive sufficient rain to support cropproduction. P. A. Omondi, J. L. Awange, E. Forootan et al., Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa region from 1961 to 2010, International Journal of Climatology, vol. Neither cool nor Warm. The temperature and rainfall of this category is highly suitable for majority of crops grown in Ethiopia. Away from the peripheries the land begins to rise gradually and considerably, culminating in peaks in various parts of the country. 1-2, pp. 0000125978 00000 n
Understanding the occurrence of extreme weather events especially rainfall is important for decision-making as it is a key factor in prediction and risk assessment [11, 12]. Overall, climate change affects Ethiopia's population mainly by causing recurring droughts, especially since 1970s. Figure 6 indicates a chronology of Ethiopian drought and flood extreme events during different time periods. Ethiopia is one of the largest humanitarian aid beneficiaries in the world and experiences significant climate-induced drought and water-related stresses on crop and livestock productivity [5]. Similarly, Jury [74] indicated weak upward trends in the rainfall observed for most models over Ethiopia. J. S. Babatolu and R. T. Akinnubi, Surface temperature anomalies in the river Niger basin development authority areas, Nigeria, Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, vol. Conversely, dry season (bega) rainfall, showed an increasing trend while kiremt season rainfall with decreasing trend for the period of19012015. Recurrent extreme drought and flood in Ethiopia lead to more economic loss. Windyshowers and thundershowers this evening, then cloudy skies with more rain likely overnight. Time and Date. 0000004598 00000 n
Altitude is the main factor that determines the spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia. The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest. Understanding the features of climate extremes at the regional to local scale is a key for designing response measures that enhance preparedness and early warning systems, and additionally in the long term, it helps in the formulation of effective adaptation planning measures to reduce the related risks. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are likely to have significant negative impacts on various socioeconomic activities over Ethiopia. 3, pp. Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. 0000003918 00000 n
World Bank, Striving toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-saharan Africa: Strategic Framework 20162020, World Bank Group, Washington, DC, USA, 2016. However, their altitudes very, and therefore their temperatures vary, as shown in table 5.1. It lies between 1500-2,300 meters above sea level.
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